SMRTILYTICS is a bit of a hobby of mine.  For a full explanation of this project, check out the main SMRTILYTICS page.  -OG

This page is set aside for a bit of a hobby of mine: analytics.  Now granted I’m not the SMRTEST guy at this but over the past few years, I’ve been doing a lot of reading on predictive analytics with respect to football.

One of the things that I’ve really been interested in is the correlation between goals conceded and challenging for the title.  I genuinely believe that is one of the best indicators of League position (besides points).  This season, however, I’m investigating a different stat altogether – total shot ratio and more specifically total shot ratio on target.

I’m curious to see that if we use the two metrics together, can we accurately predict League position this season.

This is not about vast amounts of data and tracking every statistic out there, it is a very pointed effort to see if these two metrics can accurately predict League position come May – so you won’t find Assist stats or Possession percentages here. In short, are Goals Conceded and Total Shot Ratio on Target true Performance Indicators?

I’ve been collecting the data from WhoScored.com and Four Four Two Stats Zone (which uses Opta) and feeding it into a spreadsheet to see what I can see.  I’m an amateur at this so don’t beat me up too badly.

Every week (or couple of weeks), I’ll post the latest results and hopefully some observations.  In the graphic section below, you’ll see a chart sorted by points (section 1).  It also lists Goals Against and Total Shot Ratio and Total Shot Ratio on Target.  Below that, you can find out the top and bottom three’s for a variety of stats which are up to date (section 2).  Finally, in the top right, you can see Arsenal’s average goals for and goals against (section 3).  The bracketed number in gold represents the average needed to win the League since the 1990/91 season.

Youknowit!

OG

Week 6

Click this graphic to see it in full resolution.