SMRTILYTICS is a bit of a hobby of mine.  For a full explanation of this project, check out the main SMRTILYTICS page.  -OG

Week 10

Week 10 has arrived with little fanfare and barely a whisper. It’s hard to believe we are just past the quarter mark for the season and while the League is taking shape, there’s still a lot of football to be played – if the season were a 90 minute game, we’re 23 minutes in.

One of the great things about Week 10 (or not great depending on how you look at it), is the addition of predictions to SMRTILYTICS. Usually it takes about 10 games for teams to hit full fitness, get into their respective stride and start to shake out into some sort of running order. I also feel that there is enough data to start making snap decisions on eventual League position (I actually don’t but what’s the fun of predicting League finish in Week 37).

So after 100 League games, how are things looking?

Click this graphic to see it in full resolution

Team Performances

Let’s take a look briefly at some of the teams around the League to see why their fortunes are good (or bad in a few cases).

Manchester City top the table (at time of writing they are 1-0 up against Middlesbrough in Week 11) and have certainly looked decent in the opening weeks under Pep Guardiola.  They did suffer a bit of a stutter a few weeks back but overall they have the joint top goals in the League (24 to Week 10 with Liverpool).  A peak back to Week 10 of last season shows goal tally of 24 and 8 conceded and a points total of 22.  While opponents have been different through the first 10 weeks this season, the Pep effect has hardly blown away the competition (to date).

Arsenal have looked really decent after a stuttering start to the season.  The partnership of Koscielny and Mustafi has looked somewhat solid but they still have a niggley habit of conceding soft goals.  At the other end of the pitch, 23 goals for is a marked improvement over the same period last season (18) which is a testament to the goals scoring of Alexis and Özil as well as the newly revived threat from Theo Walcott.

If you been following SMRTILYTICS for some time, you’ll know what I want – clean sheets.  We have such an open style at times that we allow more shots on our goal than any other team in the Top 5 (10.10 per game sees us 6th) and while our offensive output looks decent enough to see us get wins, I’d much more comfortable if were just a bit less promiscuous at the back.

Much was made of Chelsea’s ragged start (haha – 3-0 at the Ems) but they’ve steadily improved under Antonio Conte.  One reason for this is off the strength of their League best Total Shot Ratio on Target (0.71).  Unbelievably they didn’t allow any shots on goal in two games already this season (Burnley and Leicester at home) and if this continues, I’d expect them to continue to rise up the table.  Of particular interest is the massive difference between Conte’s Chelsea and Mourinho’s Chelsea of last season – bahahahahahaha.

Tottenham have carried on their excellent form from last season under Pochettino but if any team is a walking poster boy for why stats aren’t the be all or end all, it’s the 2015/16 Tottenham team.  With that window-licker Harry Kane out for the last several weeks, Tottenham have struggled to score and have gotten by on their League leading defensive record.  Their pressing, physical style means they tend to smother teams but it will be interesting to see how they fare with a Europa League campaign on the horizon and fixture congestion as we head into the winter months.  FOYS!

Mourinho’s Manchester United started off well enough but over the last month or so, they’ve dropped off.  Watching them, it’s hard to really know what they’re going for.  The defence looks porous although not awful, the midfield with Pogba looks awkward and unbalanced, and offense is stuttering with Zlatan.  While their Goals Conceded isn’t awful, their offensive output is no where near being a Top Four team (I guess the same could be said for Tottenham too but cleans sheets are saving them).  Of interest, their Average Position is bang on where they are showing so perhaps what we see is what we get.  If we can prolong misery for both the side and the manager, that’s be great.

West Ham are worth calling out this season purely for the change in their fortunes.  Last year after ten games, they were in third place and this season, they are hovering just above relegation.  A quick glance at their numbers shows a team with a dreadful number of goals conceded and a TSR* that shows that for every 4 shots they take, they are conceding 6 (all on target).  I’m not sure exactly what the cause of this change in form is down to (although the early season loss of Payet must be up there) but I am certain this isn’t down to the change in Stadium.  At this rate, they are on relegation form.

Sunderland are in deep trouble.  Their points total alone is worse than Villa’s last year at Week 10 and quite frankly, they don’t look like a change of fortune is heading their way.  I would have bet money on their relegation last season (and lost – thanks Norwich) and this season they are surprisingly worse.  Moyes team is in the bottom three in every stat I track (if not in the bottom one) and I’d say we’re looking at the next manager to get the sack.

The Rundown

New for this season is the Rundown.  If you noticed the Big Chart above, you likely noticed I’ve gonged the Weekly Top and Bottom Threes as some of it is already covered in the Predictions section below. Additionally, I’m introducing this new feature which shows every team based on the current table and includes League Position, Points, Goals For, Goals Against, Total Shot Ratio on Target, Combined Metric and something new(ish) I’m calling Average Position.

Average Position (AVG POSITION) was used in the 2015-16 year end spectacular and has proven to be quite popular in terms of quickly (and somewhat unscientifically) looking at if a team is performing above or below their actual League Position based on the 4 metrics listed (GF, GA, TSR*, Combined).  It’s calculated by ranking each stat against the rest of the League and then averaging that position.  For example, if Arsenal has the best Goals For and Against, the 4th best TSR* and 6th best Combined Metric, then we would calculate that as [(1+1+4+6)/4]  which equals 3 or third.  A quick check of their actual League Position will tell you if they are over-performing (first or second), under-performing (fourth or lower), or bang on where their stats say they should be (third in this example – duh).

The AVG POSITION metric isn’t statistically bulletproof but it is handy in looking at how teams are performing relative to the metrics tracked and each other.

Predictions

We move on to predictions this week which give you a bit of info from the current table, goals conceded, TSR*, and combined metric before revealing my less scientific prediction at the bottom.  My predictions are based on what I’m seeing here in the data and a little bit of gut feel.  Interestingly, we got two of the seven final positions exactly correct last year in Week 10 so let’s see if we can go a couple better this term.

Right, that’s it for this week, see you back here in a few weeks.

Youknowit!

OG