SMRTILYTICS is a bit of a hobby of mine.  For a full explanation of this project, check out the main SMRTILYTICS page.  -OG

Week 16

What a difference a week can make!

Last week I told you that Liverpool hadn’t really imposed themselves on my stats under Klopp yet, and this week – despite that celebration worthy triumph (2-2 draw with West Brom) at Anfield – they find themselves in the Top 3 for three of the statistics we track.  That’s progress folks and it really should speak to how one-sided the numbers were in favour of Liverpool at the weekend (they outshot WBA 28 to 4, had 70 percent possession, and completed 524 passes to 163).  At the end of the day, it probably should have been the Baggies that celebrated.

I have in my notes to talk about Stoke’s oddness this week.  They’ve had some decent results and held the Hammers to a 0-0 draw on Saturday.  I say Stoke oddness because they find themselves almost exactly mid-table and a quick look at this week’s Top and Bottom 3’s and it becomes apparent that they are in the Bottom 3 for goals scored (13) and the Top 3 for goals conceded (14).  Perhaps mid-table is about right?

Newcastle win their second on the bounce against in form opposition which elevates their status slightly. I’ve moved them up to 18th in my May 2016 prediction.  They still have conceded a league worst 31 goals so they aren’t in the clear yet, but if they can keep winning, they may find themselves out of danger sooner rather than later.

Another team that took their second win in two weeks is Bournemouth.  Early season injuries looked set to consign them to relegation, and I think it will be tight for them, but plucky performances against Chelsea and United might have them believing again.  There is still a long way to go.

Top of the table Leicester played relegation fodder Chelsea on Monday and the result was exactly as expected, right down to the goal scorers for the Foxes.  Leicester continue to lead the league on goals scored, but their absence from the Top 3 in the other categories has me convinced it isn’t sustainable – especially if they get injuries to key players.  That said, I have to consider them an option for the Top 4 and definitely in the picture for a European spot come May.

Chelsea on the other hand look absolutely criminal.  Stick or twist has come and gone and I find it odd that Roman is sticking with Mourinho (at time of writing).  Of course I’m glad that he continues at his post providing comedic moments for the rest of us.  His comment about the “players betraying his work” after the game against Leicester was particularly telling since their numbers have been bad all season.  Don’t get me wrong, they’ve been bad – just bad all around (players and manager).

Arsenal briefly flirted with top of the league on Sunday night after beating relegation bound Aston Villa.  They’ve continued to put in good performances despite injuries with, in my opinion, the clean sheets being almost as important as the goals at the other end.  Čech and his defensive unit need to stay healthy and keep playing well and the goals will come – let’s keep another clean sheet against City this week.

On to predictions:

Current Table:
1. Leicester 35
2. Arsenal 33
3. Manchester City 32
4. Manchester United 29

18. Norwich 14
19. Sunderland 12
20. Aston Villa 6

Table based on Goals Conceded:
1. Manchester United 12
2. Arsenal 13
3. Stoke 14
4. Tottenham 14

18. Aston Villa 30
18. Sunderland 30
20. Bournemouth 31
20. Newcastle 31

Table based on Total Shot Ratio (on target):
1. Manchester City 0.68
2. Tottenham 0.66
3. Arsenal 0.62
4. Liverpool 0.61

18. Sunderland 0.38
19. West Brom 0.36
20. Aston Villa 0.34

OG’s Prediction come May 2016:
1. Arsenal
2. Manchester City
3. Leicester
4. Manchester United

18. Newcastle
19. Sunderland
20. Aston Villa

Come on back for Week 19 and a mid-year outlook in a couple of weeks and a Happy Holidays to you and yours.

Youknowit!

OG

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