SMRTILYTICS is a bit of a hobby of mine.  For a full explanation of this project, check out the main SMRTILYTICS page.  -OG

Week 15

Week 15 is here and bucks the trend of reporting in on every second week. In order to make things right, I’ll have a Week 16 update next week.

The Premier League continues to be an utter oddball for results this season. No one could’ve predicted Chelsea’s disastrously entertaining defence of their title (or lack thereof), Leicester continue to score goals for fun at the summit of the table, United are boring the socks off of us, and Liverpool have gone full gegen-press (never go full gegen-press).

Let’s first go to the City of Manchester where Pellegrini’s side have conceded 7 goals in the last three games. While their Total Shot Ratio on target remains the best in the League, it’s hard to ignore the impact of this newfound defensive frailty. Earlier this season, they looked like they were going to walk the league and leave all others trembling in their wake, but injuries (Kompany in particular) look to have taken a toll as they find themselves in third after 15 rounds.

Injuries also look like they could derail Arsenal’s title challenge. November is traditionally an unkind month to the Gunners, but big injuries to midfield duo Santi Cazorla and Francis Coquelin could really hurt any momentum gathered from a decent campaign so far. Interesting to note that even without that pairing, and unable to get a 3-point result against Spurs, West Brom and Norwich, Arsenal continues to be in the top 3 in almost every stat I’m tracking (to the good). Goals conceded is the third lowest in the league while the Total Shot Ratio on target is third highest. Let’s hope we can get some warm bodies back on the pitch to maintain the run.

Goals, goals, goals are the name of the game at Leicester this season. The Foxes find themselves as the top of the table primarily due to the “chat sh*t, get banged” goal-scoring exploits of Jamie Vardy. Not to be outdone, Riyadh Mahrez’s clinical hat trick on the weekend kept up the stats for Ranieri’s side. They lead the league in goals scored but do not appear in the top three for any other statistic tracked. Let’s see how long this lasts.

Looking at Liverpool’s stats, much has been made of the gegen-press system of Klopp. Interestingly, there is no discernible difference in Total Shot Ratio (they do appear in the Top 3 for average shot ratio this week) or Goals Conceded since Klopp took over in Week 9. It may be too early to tell whether the system is paying off and a shock loss to Newcastle at the weekend perhaps emphasizes that.

Finally, there is a special place in my heart for Chelsea. Mourinho well and truly seems to have the Fidas touch this season as they continue to have no real redeeming stat I can point to and say, “see, they’ve just been unlucky.” They are bad; really bad. It sort of looked like their Total Shot Ratio on target was improving in Weeks 12 and 13, but then they posted a 0.20 in Week 14 and it now looks like those prior weeks were an anomaly. Only a light positive is that they aren’t in the bottom three in any categories this week – which does represent something (but not much). Exciting times for the rest of us.

On to predictions:

Current Table:
1. Leicester 32
2. Arsenal 30
3. Manchester City 29
4. Manchester United 29

18. Newcastle 13
19. Sunderland 12
20. Aston Villa 6

Table based on Goals Conceded:
1. Manchester United 10
2. Tottenham 12
3. Arsenal 13
4. Stoke 14

18. Sunderland 29
20. Bournemouth 30
20. Newcastle 30

Table based on Total Shot Ratio (on target):
1. Manchester City 0.70
2. Tottenham 0.66
3. Arsenal 0.62
4. Southampton 0.61

18. Sunderland 0.38
19. West Brom 0.36
20. Aston Villa 0.34

OG’s Prediction come May 2016:
1. Arsenal
2. Manchester City
3. Manchester United
4. Tottenham (f*ck that) Nope – still can’t do it – come on Leicester!

18. Sunderland
19. Newcastle
20. Aston Villa

Youknowit!

OG

Click this graphic to see it in full resolution