SMRTILYTICS is a bit of a hobby of mine.  For a full explanation of this project, check out the main SMRTILYTICS page.  -OG

Week 12

Here we go!

Another two weeks down in the Premier League and another two weeks of data to keep you warm and cozy as the Fall weather starts to kick in.  It’s interlull time again and yet another set of useless injuries are set to impact teams across the Premiership.

From an Arsenal perspective, it looks promising in terms of players returning from injury with the Ox, Ramsey and Bellerín all getting close.  It’ll hopefully be a welcome boost in a month that typically takes its toll on the Gunners.

On the pitch, a good performance against a plummeting Swansea saw a decent stats boost for Arsenal in Week 11 followed by the North London Derby on Sunday which saw honours even.  Much is being made about the performance of Spurs in the Derby and honestly, from this analytics work, there wasn’t anything too surprising.  Spurs have been exceptionally good at keeping out goals and have a high On Target Total Shot Ratio.  Many teams will struggle against them this season and I suspect with hindsight, that’ll be a good point for an Arsenal team that under-performed on the day.

City continue to lead the way in almost every statistical category I’m tracking and so I find it very interesting that Villa managed to hold them to a point and no goals.  Of course the individual numbers on the day favoured a City win but good on Villa for taking a point where it was likely unexpected.

Another team struggling at the moment is Bournemouth, who surely now must be in the relegation picture. They’re fifth consecutive loss was recorded this game week and for a third game in a row, they failed to score.  What’s of particular note is that against Newcastle, their On Target Total Shot Ratio was 0.83 and they outshot (total shots) the Geordies 20 to 2.  I haven’t seen a game like that this year in terms of one-sided stats in favour not resulting in at least a point (to put it in perspective, Villa managed 0 shots on target against City).

Finally let’s all laugh at Chelsea.

In  terms of predictions, I’ve decided to do it a little differently starting this week.  I’m going to give you four pieces of information: the actual top four and bottom three, what the goals conceded top four and bottom three are, what the On Target Total Shot Ratio top four and bottom three are, and finally my predictions for season’s end.  Got it?  Good.

Current Table:
1. Manchester City 26
2. Arsenal 26
3. Leicester 25
4. Manchester United 24

18. Bournemouth 8
19. Sunderland 6
20. Aston Villa 5

Table based on Goals Conceded:
1. Manchester United 8
2. Arsenal 9
2. Manchester City 9
4. Tottenham 10

18. Chelsea 23
19. Bournemouth 25
20. Sunderland 26

Table based on Total Shot Ratio (on target):
1. Manchester City 0.77
2. Southampton 0.66
2. Tottenham 0.66
4. Arsenal 0.60

18. Sunderland 0.36
19. West Brom 0.36
20. Aston Villa 0.34

OG’s Prediction come May 2016:
1. Manchester City
2. Arsenal
3. Manchester United
4. Tottenham (oh god that is painful) Nope – still can’t do it – come on Leicester!

18. Aston Villa
19. Bournemouth
20. Sunderland

See you back here after Week 14 and Come On You Rip Roaring Reds!

Youknowit!

OG

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