SMRTILYTICS is a bit of a hobby of mine. For a full explanation of this project, check out the main SMRTILYTICS page. -OG
Week 38 – The Season Finale
Well it seems that enough time has passed since the season has concluded and it feels like it’s now or never to put a bookend on SMRTILYTICS for the 2015/16 Season. In truth, that time has likely come and gone – but better late than never, right…right?
For the season ender, I’m going to keep it simple. Of course we’ll have our Big Chart in all it’s glory but in addition I’ll give you a rundown on the Total Shot Ratio on Target, Goals For and Against, and the Combined Metric for each team.
Finally, I’ll give my thoughts on the predictive nature of these numbers in terms of League finish and look at the future of SMRTILYTICS.
First up, it’s the final big chart of the season in all it’s glory – I’d highly recommend printing it out and pinning it to the ceiling (BOOM – mind blown):
Click this graphic to see it in full resolution
So, how did they finish? Next up we’ll run down each team by finishing order. I’ve added some text for the Top 4 and the Relegation teams that speaks to if and when we accurately predicted their finishing position in order to close the loop on our predictions.
Additionally, and completely unscientifically, I averaged the position of each metric per team to give the bracketed number/position next to each team’s name. Through some questionable logic, I thought this would give a quick check to see how close those stats represented finishing position and perhaps see if teams under or over-performed. If you’re an actual statistician and cringing at my techniques, please note that all inquiries will be promptly ignored.
1. Leicester (3.75)
Goals For: 68 (3rd)
Goals Against: 36 (joint 2nd)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.56 (6th)
Combined Metric: 0.42 (4th)
We predicted, and likely are in the same boat as most other outlets, that Leicester would win the League in our Week 29 update. This was based mainly on the fact that up until then, the metrics we track really weren’t in the same class as Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester City. Of course with hindsight, they strung together a number of good 1-0 wins and eventually lifted the title.
2. Arsenal (3)
Goals For: 65 (joint 4th)
Goals Against: 36 (joint 2nd)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.58 (4th)
Combined Metric: 0.39 (joint 2nd)
We predicted an Arsenal second place finish way back in Week 10. This was the first week we did predictions and although our prediction fluctuated several times after this initial prognosis, they did eventually sneak into the second spot. Note that in no prediction this year, did we predict Tottenham to finish higher than Arsenal.
3. Tottenham (1.67)
Goals For: 69 (2nd)
Goals Against: 35 (joint 1st)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.67 (1st)
Combined Metric: 0.30 (1st)
Hahahahaha. North London is Red. Also, we accurately predicted this one in Week 19 – but looking at their numbers, they should have done better. They didn’t though… heh.
4. Manchester City (3.33)
Goals For: 71 (1st)
Goals Against: 41 (joint 5th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.64 (2nd)
Combined Metric: 0.39 (joint 2nd)
We predicted a fourth place finish for City back in our Week 26 update. One of the reasons we were so late with City is that their numbers were just so good in the first part of the season.
5. Man U (5.75)
Goals For: 49 (9th)
Goals Against: 35 (joint 1st)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.53 (8th)
Combined Metric: 0.43 (5th)
6. Southampton (5.75)
Goals For: 59 (joint 7th)
Goals Against: 41 (joint 5th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.57 (5th)
Combined Metric: 0.47 (6th)
7. West Ham (7.25)
Goals For: 65 (joint 4th)
Goals Against: 51 (joint 10th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.54 (7th)
Combined Metric: 0.62 (8th)
8. Liverpool (6)
Goals For: 63 (6th)
Goals Against: 50 (joint 8th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.61 (3rd)
Combined Metric: 0.52 (7th)
9. Stoke (15.25)
Goals For: 41 (14th)
Goals Against: 55 (joint 15th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.44 (17th)
Combined Metric: 0.82 (15th)
10. Chelsea (9.75)
Goals For: 59 (joint 8th)
Goals Against: 53 (13th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.50 (9th)
Combined Metric: 0.69 (9th)
11. Everton (10.75)
Goals For: 60 (7th)
Goals Against: 54 (14th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.49 (10th)
Combined Metric: 0.73 (12th)
12. Swansea (14)
Goals For: 38 (18th)
Goals Against: 51 (joint 10th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.45 (15th)
Combined Metric: 0.76 (13th)
13. Watford (11.75)
Goals For: 40 (15th)
Goals Against: 50 (joint 8th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.45 (14th)
Combined Metric: 0.72 (joint 10th)
14. West Brom (15)
Goals For: 34 (19th)
Goals Against: 48 (7th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.37 (joint 20th)
Combined Metric: 0.80 (14th)
15. Palace (12)
Goals For: 39 (joint 16th)
Goals Against: 51 (joint 10th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.47 (joint 12th)
Combined Metric: 0.72 (joint 10th)
16. Bournemouth (14.75)
Goals For: 45 (12th)
Goals Against: 67 (joint 19th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.48 (11th)
Combined Metric: 0.92 (17th)
17. Sunderland (15.75)
Goals For: 48 (11th)
Goals Against: 62 (16th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.40 (18th)
Combined Metric: 0.98 (18th)
18. Newcastle (14.5)
Goals For: 44 (13th)
Goals Against: 65 (17th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.47 (joint 12th)
Combined Metric: 0.91 (16th)
Newcastle occupied our 18 spot in the predictions way back in Week 10 – again the first week we predicted. Later in the season, they looked like they might get out of it but ultimately Sunderland and Jermain Defoe performed a great escape.
19. Norwich (17.5)
Goals For: 39 (joint 16th)
Goals Against: 67 (joint 19th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.44 (16th)
Combined Metric: 0.99 (19th)
Norwich snatched relegation from the jaws of safety based largely on some really bad form in the latter part of the League. The only time we even predicted they’d get relegated was in Week 26 (18th) but never did we predict their eventual 19th spot.
20. Aston Villa (20)
Goals For: 27 (20th)
Goals Against: 76 (20th)
Total Shot Ratio on Target: 0.37 (joint 20th)
Combined Metric: 1.27 (20th)
Villa were actually quite terrible and never once were predicted to be safe from relegation. As you can see from their numbers above, last was a fitting position. In terms of accurately predicting 20th, we did it back in Week 15.
In terms of an experiment, I really enjoyed bringing you SMRTILYTICS this year. I found myself digging deeper on assumptions about performance and frequently proving those assumptions wrong with facts. It did seem that there was something to the numbers we tracked and how teams eventually finished – and maybe I can’t say beyond all doubt, even sitting here typing this I’m seeing patterns in the stats I tracked.
One of the things I wasn’t totally happy with was the match predictions we started in Week 33. I can say that for the time spent doing it, it wasn’t really as fulfilling as I’d hope it would be. I don’t think that will carry forward to next season.
Of course we could do a lot more, and I could look at how correct we were from a statistical significance perspective for each metric, but having a full time job, 3 kids and 2 kittens means that work will have to stay on the back-burner for now.
So yes, I intend to bring back SMRTILYTICS next season. I hope you enjoyed it even a little – and we’ll see you back here soon.
Youknowit,
OG
PS – Shout out to my Whats App peeps