SMRTILYTICS is a bit of a hobby of mine.  For a full explanation of this project, check out the main SMRTILYTICS page.  -OG

Week 26

Squeaky bum time?  Are we there yet?  Darn – I should have saved that for a later week.  Oh well, it’s out there now…

This week I’m taking a look at the Top Four a little more closely along with the usual predictions and the big chart! Yeah – the big chart!

Leicester:
53 Points (1st)
29 Goals Conceded (7th)
0.56 TSR on Target (6th)
0.49 Combined Metric (6th)

Current league leaders and Cinderella story, Leicester, suffered only their third loss of the season in Week 26. Of interest was that fellow league challenger, Arsenal, are the only team to do the league double over the Foxes this year.

Leicester represent an extremely interesting quantity, not only for their unexpected position this year, but also for the apparent statistical outlier when it comes to goals conceded and total shot ratio. Their combined metric from both sits only at 6th overall – a number that belies their overall league position and stands in stark contrast to others in title contention.

The question must be asked – will these numbers catch-up with them eventually, causing a drop in League Position?

To put it in context, the average number of goals conceded to win the title since 1990-1, has been 32.16. That means hypothetically they can allow only 3 more goals in their remaining 12 games. There are, however, examples that fly in the face of these numbers down the years. The most notable is Manchester United’s 45 conceded in the 1999/2000 season. United also scored 97 goals that season (Leicester are currently on 48 – so 97 looks unreachable for them), which was amongst the highest tally seen in that column.

Another curiousity about Leicester is that they are one of two teams in the Top Four that play a pressing style (Tottenham the other). Whereas Spurs press the ball, Leicester press the pass receiver, a tactic that was used to great effect at the Emirates in the first half this past week – Kante particularly excelled at it.

The common complaint levelled against pressing teams, especially in the Premier League which does not have a winter break, is that they eventually run out of fitness due to the physical expenditure needed for a 38 game season. Leicester though, don’t look like they are tiring – and with no significant injuries and only 12 games left, they stand a real chance of staying in the top spot.

Tottenham:
51 Points (2nd on goal difference)
20 Goals Conceded (1st)
0.68 TSR on Target (1st)
0.25 Combined Metric (1st)

Spurs occupy the second position on the table after 26 rounds (easy cowboy – it’s on goal difference) after looking to be one of the most consistent teams in the league. A quick look at the Premier League form guide confirms this (second to Saints).

Pochettino has transformed Tottenham into a pressing team, one that bares the same risks in terms of fitness and lasting ability in the Premier League. Unlike Leicester, Spurs have a possible 26 or 27 games left in their season – and that combined with the even more physically taxing ball press tactic, increases the likelihood of a Spurs-esque tumble.

That said, they haven’t had a lot of injuries to date, and in Lloris, they have a fantastic keeper. They looked pretty impressive at City in Week 26 and it’ll be interesting to see if/when the legs run out.

Stats-wise, they’ve been on our radar since around Week 8 and have continued to improve their goals-conceded and total shot ratios on target while others have had trouble maintaining a consistently high enough standard to win the league. They are currently the best in the league in both stats, giving them a combined metric of 0.25. Without the precedence of the past few seasons worth of data, I’d hazard to guess that is the best in recent years.

Begrudgingly they’ll be there, or thereabouts come May – but this ain’t no Spurs love in, so FOYS!

Arsenal:
51 Points (3rd on goal difference)
23 Goals Conceded (2nd)
0.57 TSR on Target (5th)
0.38 Combined Metric (3rd)

Will we or won’t we? That is the question on just about every Gooner’s mind at the moment.

Fresh off the beating of league-leading Leicester, there is a feeling that we can push on and go on one of our runs to continue pressure on the teams above us. I’ve found it extremely fascinating watching the league this year through this statistical lens; and I think from that perspective, it is quite likely we can make a real push for the Title.

If you read my Week 22 update – I spoke about the impact the absences of Coquelin, Cazorla and Alexis had had on our numbers since West Brom in Week 13 (see the Week 22 update). We really needed to get our TSR back up to where it was pre-WBA as well as get back to keeping clean sheets if we expected to challenge this season.

Stoke and Chelsea statistically were just plain bad, but with the return of Alexis in particular against Southampton, we had fantastic response – it was one we needed desperately.

Despite finishing 0-0 (note the clean sheet), we had 24 shots for and 11 on target – it was our second best performance of the year after registering 12 shots on target against Leicester away and Stoke at home in Week 5. That combined with our second highest TSR on Target this season (0.79 – our best came against Watford), and it was exactly the type of statistical response we needed. Alexis was impressive.

Subsequent wins against Bournemouth (another clean sheet) and Leicester have further pushed our numbers back into the right spot – albeit skewed by the red card at the weekend.

Looking ahead, given the return of Alexis and Coquelin back into the starting XI and the upturn in our numbers that coincide with their returns, it’s not unreasonable to expect a real push.

Manchester City:
47 Points (4th)
28 Goals Conceded (4th joint with Watford)
0.64 TSR on Target (2nd)
0.39 Combined Metric (4th)

The final team I’m looking at this week is City who are currently sitting in fourth. Fans of SMRTILYTICS (all 2 of you) will know that City were the class of the league early doors. But significant injuries in Kompany and Aguero to a lesser extent, look to have dampened any aspirations to win the league this year.

I’d be foolish to dismiss them for the ultimate position come May, but it does look like they are the least likely of the four to hoist the crown.

Watching them against Spurs last weekend, they looked a team bereft of ideas. There was no spark in the manner they played and the ease of which Spurs opened them up for their second was ominous.

It is still unclear if there will be an impact to the performances based on the announcement of Pep joining them at the end of the season as their new manager. There has been rife speculation for both sides of argument – with some saying that players may no longer be motivated to play for their doomed manager Pellegrini – while others point out that those same players may be playing for their futures.

I personally think that they are professionals as well as competitors – but that the little extra edge to go the distance may not be there.  In a future update, we will take a look at City’s numbers both pre and post Pep announcement just to see if there was a perceptible difference.

Right, before we go to predictions, keep an eye on Southampton for an outside chance at the Top Four. They’re the in form team at the moment and their numbers have been steadily getting better – in fact you’ll see them featuring prevalently below in the Big Chart Top 3’s.

Current Table:
1. Leicester 53
2. Tottenham 51
3. Arsenal 51
4. Manchester City 47

18. Newcastle 24
19. Sunderland 23
20. Aston Villa 16

Table based on Goals Conceded:
1. Tottenham 20
2. Arsenal 23
3. Manchester United 24
4. Southampton 24

18. Newcastle 49
19. Norwich 50
20. Sunderland 50

Table based on Total Shot Ratio (on target):
1. Tottenham 0.68
2. Manchester City 0.64
3. Southampton 0.61
4. Liverpool 0.60

18. Aston Villa 0.40
19. Sunderland 0.38
20. West Brom 0.36

Table based on Combined Metric (see description above):
1. Tottenham 0.25
2. Southampton 0.36
3. Arsenal 0.38
4. Manchester City 0.39

18. Norwich 1.09
19. Newcastle 1.11
20. Sunderland 1.20

OG’s Prediction come May 2016:
1. Arsenal
2. Tottenham – Literally anyone else except maybe Chelsea
3. Leicester
4. Manchester City

18. Norwich
19. Sunderland
20. Aston Villa

Before I go – a small shout out to WKRP in Cincinnati.  See you back here in a couple weeks.

Youknowit!

OG

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