SMRTILYTICS is a bit of a hobby of mine.  For a full explanation of this project, check out the main SMRTILYTICS page.  -OG

Week 19

Halfway through the season and what a season it has been.  From Chelsea’s collapse to the rise of teams like Leicester, Stoke and Crystal Palace – nobody could have predicted the way this season has panned out so far.

From a statistical perspective, I’ve begun to investigate how I can combine Goals Conceded with Total Shot Ratio (on Target) to come up with a single combined metric.  If you’re a statistician, look away now. Essentially, what I’ve done for this new Combined Metric is used Goals Conceded per game and multiplied it by (1-) the TSR on Target.

Combined Metric = (Goals Conceded/Game) x (1-TSR*)

The logic behind this is that Goals Conceded should be low and TSR should be high – however TSR is a ratio which means it has a maximum of 1.  So by saying you want a high TSR, you are essentially attempting to minimize the difference between your TSR and 1.  By doing this, you can now say that both numbers being low is a positive metric, and the subsequent sum of these numbers  (lower is better) may prove to be an indicator of League Position.  I still think Goals Conceded is the more indicative of the two numbers so I will investigate weighting this number in future weeks.

Boring stuff aside, let’s take a look at some of the teams that are performing and some that are vastly struggling this term.  I’ve picked the current Top Four as well as a few others to look at below.

Arsenal:
39 Points (1st on goal difference)
18 Goals Conceded (4th)
0.61 TSR on Target (3rd)
0.37 Combined Metric (3rd)

Arsenal find themselves top of the table after an ignominious start to the season against West Ham.  There have been highs for the Gunners (City and United at home) as well as disastrous results (Southampton away) but overall, they’ve shown the consistency to be top.  Overall, their stats (that I have measured this season) have stayed relatively high, and while they haven’t blown the League away in any particular category, it is encouraging for the remainder of the season.  I think a key for our boys will be continuing to get clean sheets – Čech has proven his worth to date and we’ll be hoping he can lift yet another Premier League trophy come May.

Leicester:
39 Points (2nd)
25 Goals Conceded (13th)
0.54 TSR on Target (6th)
0.60 Combined Metric (11th)

The surprise package this year, Ranieri has the Foxes dreaming of the Champions League.  Watching their recent draw against Manchester City, it was clear just how far they’ve come in the last 12 months.  They’ll be hoping Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy remain healthy – but I’ve also been impressed with Fuchs, Albrighton and Kanté.  The general consensus is that they will fall off, and while I agree that should be the case (based on their stats not being particularly impressive), I think they do have an excellent chance at the Top Four.

Manchester City:
36 Points (3rd)
20 Goals Conceded (6th)
0.67 TSR on Target (1st)
0.35 Combined Metric (2nd)

City’s numbers were so impressive through the opening weeks of the League, I had them buttoning this thing down by Easter.  Injuries to Kompany and Agüero have since reeled them in and their overall goals conceded is a reflection of what a loss the Belgian has been for them in particular. They remain dangerous and extremely capable of topping the table come May, but they’ll need to figure out their defense in order to win it all.

Tottenham:
35 Points (4th)
15 Goals Conceded (1st)
0.66 TSR on Target (2nd)
0.27 Combined Metric (1st)

This one pains me. Quietly going about their business, Tottenham have slowly climbed the table with some excellent numbers. Early season, they looked like masters of the draw, but notably it took Arsenal product Harry Kane several weeks to find his scoring boots – and once he started, they moved up the table rather quickly. If they can continue to match defensive solidarity with scoring composure, then they must be a Top Four team come May. But this is Spurs, and I’m counting on them Spursing it up…badly.

Manchester United:
30 Points (6th on goal difference)
16 Goals Conceded (2nd joint)
0.51 TSR on Target (10th)
0.41 Combined Metric (5th)

Manchester United have been in the spotlight lately for some really poor results. Their season has been built on not conceding goals and then nicking a winner; but their inability to score has caught up to them and they’re starting to drop down the table. I can’t see them (on current course) breaking the Top Four this season which begs the question: what did they spend all that money on?

Liverpool:
30 Points (7th on goal difference)
22 Goals Conceded (8th)
0.61 TSR on Target (4th)
0.46 Combined Metric (6th)

Liverpool are an interesting case. After ditching Rodgers in early October, their numbers have slowly been on the rise. To the naked eye, they haven’t looked much better, but a 4th best Total Shot Ratio on Target indicate something is happening at Anfield.  They are on course to make Europe this season which is surely better than where Brendan was taking them.

Chelsea:
20 Points (14th)
29 Goals Conceded (15th)
0.48 TSR on Target (13th)
0.79 Combined Metric (15th)

Hahahaahahaahahahahaha.  The numbers don’t lie.  Hahahahaahaahahahahaha.  Sadly won’t be relegated.

Aston Villa:
8 Points (20th)
34 Goals Conceded (17th joint second worst)
0.38 TSR on Target (18th)
1.12 Combined Metric (18th)

Villa are in last place and since Rémi Garde took over, they’ve failed to make any movement up the table. They’ll need a few bodies in January in order to stand a chance but their numbers are pretty damning.

On to predictions:

Current Table:
1. Arsenal 39
2. Leicester 39
3. Manchester City 36
4. Tottenham 35

18. Newcastle 17
19. Sunderland 12
20. Aston Villa 8

Table based on Goals Conceded:
1. Tottenham 15
2. Crystal Palace 16
3. Manchester United 16
4. Arsenal 18

17. Aston Villa 34
17. Bournemouth 34
17. Newcastle 34
20. Sunderland 38

Table based on Total Shot Ratio (on target):
1. Manchester City 0.67
2. Tottenham 0.66
3. Arsenal 0.61
4. Liverpool 0.61

18. Aston Villa 0.38
20. Newcastle 0.36
20. Sunderland 0.36

Table based on Combined Metric (see description above)
1. Tottenham 0.27
2. Manchester City 0.35
3. Arsenal 0.37
4. Crystal Palace 0.41
4. Manchester United 0.41

18. Aston Villa 1.12
20. Newcastle 1.15
20. Sunderland 1.29

OG’s Prediction come May 2016:
1. Arsenal
2. Manchester City
3. Tottenham  – Literally anyone else except maybe Chelsea
4. Leicester

18. Newcastle
19. Sunderland
20. Aston Villa

Thanks for coming by and checking this out – I’ve enjoyed this work to date.

Youknowit!

OG

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