SMRTILYTICS is a bit of a hobby of mine. For a full explanation of this project, check out the main SMRTILYTICS page. -OG
Week 10
The fabled Week 10 is finally here and it’s easy to see why people tend to agree that by ten games in, trends start to emerge. I’ll give a bit of a breakdown this week of some of the things I’m seeing and I’ll also start a new section – season predictions – which I’ll carry on until Week 38.
No better place to start than the top where despite a bore draw with bitter rivals United, City continue to lead almost all statistics being tracked. I had wondered how they would fair without Silva and Aguero but it seems they’ve found a way, at least in Week 9.
Speaking of United, it takes a little more digging to find out what is going on with them. As with most great United teams, they are in the Top Four without looking all that great. Defensively, they start to show up in our stats with a league leading defensive record of 8 goals allowed and a decent number for average shots allowed.
In fact all of the teams who have allowed just 8 goals (City, Spurs and Arsenal along with United) are on title winning form in that department as they sit below the average of 0.85 needed to win the League historically.
At the other end of the table, the derby between Sunderland and Newcastle went some distance to prove that statistics mean nothing sometimes. Not only would I have picked Newcastle to pip it based on their stats to date, but also the in game stats were heavily in favour of a Geordie win.
Villa have also been absolutely dire this year and so it was perhaps unsurprising that Tactics Timmy Sherwood got the sack after a loss to Swansea (2 Ayews on the scoresheet). It will be interesting to see how Remi Garde, who is looking like the new manager at time of writing, fares and if he can change their fortunes around.
One of the great stories this season has been the absolutely dismal performances by the weak and naive Chelsea. As you may have heard Dom (@ozgooner49) on A Bergkamp Wonderland mention this week, there is absolutely nothing to suggest they will be able to turn it around as they continue to hover in that lower half of the table. In particular, they’ve conceded way too many goals to even be in the Top Four conversation and they continue to let teams shoot against them. I love it.
As for Arsenal, wins versus Watford, Munich and Everton presented us with a glimpse of what could be. Serial goalscorer Alexis Sánchez failed to hit the target against the Toffees but it was encouraging to see “le buteur de charme” get a fantastic goal in the rain of North London. I attributed our kick start to the season around Week 7 to Alexis and it is nice to see other players contributing by converting our high shot stats into goals after a slow start (how about that Mesut assist – oh mama). Additionally, our defense continues to be solid – let’s hope we can beat Swansea at the weekend.
Right, so predictions. I should say that this is not being done with the heart, but rather by looking at the numbers and matching TSR on target and goals conceded.
Top Four come May:
1. Manchester City
2. Arsenal
3. Manchester United
4. Tottenham (oh god that is painful) Nope – can’t do it – come on Leicester!
Relegation Teams:
18. Newcastle
19. Aston Villa
20. Sunderland
We will likely see you back after Week 12 and if you’re wondering what I’m up to these days, I can tell you that I’m back at A Bergkamp Wonderland.
Youknowit!
OG
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